Two major risk events hit next week, gold bullish sentiment

China Gold Network June 03 news, international spot gold on June 2, the week ended up a total increase of 12.20 US dollars, or 0.96%, to close at 1279.90 US dollars / ounce, the highest test 1279.10 US dollars / ounce, the lowest test 1258.55 US dollars / ounce. On Friday, the price of gold rose to a six-week high. The US employment data was disappointing, weighed the dollar, and the US expectation of a more positive rate hike this year cooled.

Specifically:

US employment growth slowed in May, and employment growth data for the previous two months was also revised, suggesting that the job market is losing momentum, although the unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low of 4.3%.

According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of non-agricultural jobs in the United States increased by 138,000 in May, with manufacturing, government and retail jobs falling, with an estimated increase of 185,000.

The US economic recovery is slowing down, cutting the possibility of raising interest rates.

“The data on non-agricultural employment has surprised everyone. It seems that the gold market will continue to rise,” said Joshua Graves, market strategist at RJO Futures.

ABN AMRO strategist Georgette Boele said, “This is not the kind of report people want, and it puts pressure on the dollar and government bond yields. Gold is always willing to benefit from it.” She said the data will lead investors to the Fed. The rate hike lowers expectations.

Expectations of strong employment data and US manufacturing data are good, pulling gold down to a one-week low on Friday.

In other markets, US stocks hit record highs for the second consecutive day, and the dollar fell to a seven-month low, making dollar-denominated gold less expensive.

Focus on two major risk events:

Next week, Trump’s “Left Door” and “TongRumen” scandals, which have been quiet for nearly a week, seem to be expected to regain the headlines of the world’s authoritative media next week. According to foreign media reports, the former US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) director Komi has confirmed that he will go to the Senate Intelligence Committee to testify on June 8. His publicly-recognized public fabric will be the same as the president in the past few months. Rump's interaction provides clues.

The Senate Intelligence Committee’s statement said that Komi will begin public testimony at 10 am on Thursday (June 8), and will hold a closed-door discussion with the committee that afternoon.

It is reported that Richard Burr, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said in a statement that the committee hopes to understand the progress of the investigation by intelligence agencies in the case of Russia’s interference with the US presidential election and the commitment of Komi himself in the investigation. character of. Mark Werner, vice chairman of the Intelligence Committee, said that Komi’s sudden dismissal caused many questions from outside, and his testimony may answer some of the questions, which will also help the committee’s ongoing investigations in Russia.

On Thursday, the well-known gold information website Kitco wrote that investors are waiting for Komi's testimony, which is expected to be a risk factor affecting the dollar's movement. The renewed political turmoil may have a positive impact on gold prices next week, but due to the Fed 6 The monthly monetary policy meeting is approaching, and the price increase of gold should be limited.

George Gero, managing director of RBC Wealth Management, is also looking forward to the rise in gold, explaining that although the market has already included the Fed rate hike this month, the current employment report shows how the market will act on the radical Fed later this year. doubt.

Gero added, "And there are enough political concerns to continue to support gold. In particular, it refers to the congressional testimony of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, James Comey, who was dismissed by US President Trump on June 8."

In addition, the UK will hold general elections next week. Polls show that Teresa’s conservative leadership has narrowed, which adds to the uncertainty of the election results. If there is any accident in the general election, the market risk sentiment will be suppressed, and the golden light will shine.

Outlook outlook

Kitco's weekly gold survey released on Friday showed that 80% of Wall Street professionals believe that gold will continue to rise, and the weakening of non-farm payrolls report on Friday may mean that the Fed will shrink later this year. In the survey of professionals, 20 people participated in the survey, 16 people believe that gold will rise next week, the proportion is 80%; 4 or 20% believe that gold will consolidate, no one is bearish. Market participants include gold traders, investment banks, futures traders and technical analysts. Due to technical issues, there is no survey data for online general investors this week, which is expected to resume next week.

Colin Cieszynski, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Canada, also responded to Gero's views. "I am optimistic about gold next week, US payroll and trade data weaken the dollar. Although the Fed may raise interest rates this month, this may be the last round. Political risk next week will testify in the UK election and the Komi Congress. Brewing."

Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS (Switzerland) SA, described precious metals as "very strong." He said: "It looks like $1,300 per ounce is around the corner."

Kevin Gray, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, expressed neutrality to gold next week and expressed doubts about whether gold can maintain its upward momentum from the direct consequences of the payroll report. He pointed out that the continued expectation is that Fed policymakers will implement a rate hike in the middle of this month. He said, "I don't want to be bullish on gold, it's not like the lower price I want to find."

On Friday, the information website Economies.com said in a report that the price of gold had some signs of decline earlier, testing the support level of the 50-day moving average, which prevented the further decline of the gold price and formed a good support for the rising trend in the day. So far, wait for the price of gold to enter the rising channel and resume the upward trend. Therefore, we maintain our expectation of rising intraday, unless the price of gold breaks below the price of 1262.00 US dollars / ounce and stays below it, pointing to the next target of 1295.37 US dollars / ounce.

(Editor: HN666)