The wig of the wig factory is looking for me, and I am looking down on the wig industry and optimistic about the stock.

In the days of Halloween every year, in the past two weeks, US stocks and Hong Kong stocks have been scared, and the endlessly can fall back to 200 points. Afterwards, nothing happened. It is a "fiscal cliff". According to the late Jin Wang Hu Hanhui's famous saying: "All known news is reflected in the market!"

At present, the HSI PE is only 10 times more than the past 42 years (from the Hang Seng Index ( 21708.98 , -135.05 , -0.62% ) since 1970), the HSI average PE is 14 times lower by 14%, 17 times lower than the current Dow PE. Nearly 50%. For example, the Hang Seng Index PE will return 14 times next year, that is, the Hang Seng Index will see 30,000 points. If it is 17 times, the Hang Seng Index can hit a new high. Why is the HSI PE so low this year? The reason is that Hong Kong investors have not forgotten the financial tsunami since October 2007.

Obama stock VS Romney shares

Since March 2009, the Obama administration has raised the balance sheets of central banks from $6 trillion in 2007 to the recent $18 trillion through QE, QE2, OT1, OT2 and QE3, equivalent to global GDP. 30%, stimulating the US stock market, driving real estate prices to rebound.

What about post-election? For example, Obama’s re-election is not good for energy stocks because it will further exploit oil shale and offshore oil; it is also disadvantageous for multinational companies because tax rates are rising, but they are good for drug stocks and medical stocks.

If Romney comes to power, it is not good for the drug stocks; it is good for the dollar and gold, and it is related to the restoration of the gold standard.

Monetary policy can bring short-term prosperity to the economy, but it cannot change the general direction of the economy. At present, US banks have more than 3 trillion US dollars of funds that cannot be borrowed. They only deposit 0.25 cents in the Fed, which makes the Fed further increase the money supply, and its economic influence is getting smaller and smaller.

Rich people reduce real estate investment

China Merchants Bank ( 14.44 , -0.08 , -0.55% , real-time market) Governor Ma Wei said at the Wealth Management Forum held in Qingdao last month: "Emerging market GDP from 2008 to 2011 increased by an average of 5.5% per year, and the average wealth It is up 18.4% per year, with the largest in Asia, with an average annual increase of 20%.” The Boston Consulting Group's July survey found that more than 85% of global private banks, more than 80% of hedge funds, and more than 75% of private equity funds speak. Increase the allocation of emerging markets in the next few years, bringing the global wealth management center to the east.

The PricewaterhouseCoopers research report estimates that Singapore will replace Switzerland in 2013 and become the world's largest private banking center, with increased demand for wealth management. According to the Bain consultation survey, the current pursuit of wealth security and wealth inheritance, investment projects are across the currency, capital markets, real estate, precious metals, derivatives, private equity, and even including art and other integrated financial solutions.

The wealthy community portfolio is reducing the share of real estate, from 24% of total investment in 2006 to 15% in 2012, with increased investment in private equity, hedge funds and structured products. After the financial crisis, the international community demanded greater transparency in wealth management, called for enhanced information disclosure, establishing a firewall, and requiring shadow banking to be included in the regulatory scope to strengthen the protection of investors' interests.

Today's stock market situation is: First, the valuation has reached a very attractive level; Second, the defensive field is the most popular, enterprising areas have long been sold; Third, most of the shares can provide 3 to 5% return, has been attracted by bonds.

Today, in the face of the growing Chinese middle class, why are investors worried about the death of Chinese property stocks, Chinese banks and mainland consumer stocks? What is the short-term situation? I do not know. In the long-term and long-term, it is definitely undervalued. Under the current purchase of such shares, it is comparable to buying gold in 2000.

Knowing the situation is Junjie

Looking ahead to Hong Kong's future, it is increasingly certain that GDP has entered a period of low growth since 2008, and the time is very long, which may last for fifteen to twenty years. It is disappointing for young people to be discouraged. They may forget that it is not the time to create a hero, but the one who knows how to grasp the situation is a true hero. I remember that a tycoon who opened a wig factory at the end of 1969 came to me because he was bearish on the wig industry and optimistic about stocks. After reading my article in Ming Pao Evening News, I decided to pay a large sum of money to ask him to invest in stocks and allocate 20 million Hong Kong dollars to invest on him. In 1970, the Hang Seng Index rose from 100 points to 1200 points in January 1973, a 12-fold increase. The investment of 20 million Hong Kong dollars suddenly became 200 million Hong Kong dollars.

Since then, I have begun to look down on and proposed to invest 100 million Hong Kong dollars in stocks to invest in real estate, which was 150 Hong Kong dollars per square foot. At first, the boss did not object, but unfortunately, in January 1973, the stock market rose more and more. In March 1973, he finally couldn't help but call me a small manager, and found a factory manager in the wig factory to invest in stock on his behalf. The director took me out of HK$100 million and bought 10 million shares of Shun Tak Group at a price of HK$12.8 per share at the Hang Seng Index at 1700 ( 3.74 , 0.05 , 1.36% , real-time quote) , due to his purchase, The stock price of Shun Tak was once raised to HK$18. Although I strongly opposed it, it was a pity that I lost my boss’s trust. I had to go to marriage and ignore the company’s business.

By December 1974, the 10 million shares of Shun Tak were sold at 85 HK cents per share (1 sen = 1 point). The boss then ended the investment company and invested the money in the electronics factory... two years ago, The old boss who has not seen for many years said that he lives in an old dormitory in Kwun Tong and asks Lao Cao to have time to explore him.

From 20 million Hong Kong dollars in 1970 to 200 million Hong Kong dollars in 1973, it is only a hero. On the contrary, in 1973, I was able to seize the opportunity to sell stocks and become real estate. Today, I am rich! It is proved that it is not the time to create a hero, but the person who knows how to grasp the situation is a true hero.

The next fifteen or twenty years should be a period of low GDP growth in Hong Kong, but it does not mean that there is no opportunity. The economic cycle, a small wave in three years, a big wave in nine years. There are always people who have lost or lost. Young people should not sigh at the time of their birth. They should have the courage to be rich and unsuccessful. Success is not a fluke, but to understand the situation.

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